New Cold War in the Americas? at No Man’s Blog

First it was Fidel Castro of Cuba. Then it was Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. And now—maybe—it could be Daniel Ortega, a.k.a. El Comandante, of Nicaragua.

What? Again? Ortega’s not gone?

Apparently not.

Ortega, former Marxist strongman and leader of the FSLN (Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional) in Nicaragua, was one of the principle figures in the overthrow of Anastasio Somosa in 1979. The Somosa regime had been in power in Nicaragua for 43 years. In 1984, Ortega was elected president of the Latin American nation in what some call the “first free and fair elections in Nicaragua’s history”. A protracted, bloody war with American-backed insurgents (the contras: contrarrevolucionarios) ensued. Free elections were held in 1990 as part of a peace agreement between the two factions, and Ortega was defeated by a coalition of opposition parties led by Violeta Barrios de Chamorro.

Sixteen years after he was ousted from office and, after two failed campaign attempts in the interim, Ortega seems to be back with a vengeance. Now, at 61 years of age, Daniel Ortega is leading a pack of five presidential candidates vying for the Nicaraguan presidency. The elections will be held on November 5, and Ortega leads in public opinion polls with 30 percent support. According to the New York Times, the Nicaraguan constitution allows a presidential candidate to take office if he wins 35 percent of the votes and leads his closest rival by at least five points. It seems that six years ago Ortega decided to climb into bed with a former right-wing Nicaraguan president to orchestrate the revision of the Nicaraguan constitution. In an editorial published one year ago this month, the Washington Post reported:

Mr. Ortega’s comeback has been accomplished through a brazenly corrupt alliance with a former right-wing president, Arnoldo Aleman, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2003 for looting the national treasury. Mr. Ortega’s Sandinista Party supported the prosecution, then abruptly switched sides and formed a pact with Mr. Aleman against President Enrique Bolanos, a member of Mr. Aleman’s Liberal Party who bravely chose to tackle government corruption. The left-right alliance has used its majority in the National Assembly to rewrite the constitution and stack the Supreme Court.

Prior to the constitutional revision, a candidate needed 45 percent of the votes to win. Some observers note that a number of the candidates running against Ortega in this year’s election are largely motivated by their opposition to another Sandinista (Ortega) presidency. But the very number of candidates who have jumped into the fray may have inadvertently watered down the opposition to the extent that Ortega can actually win this thing—a chance he may not have had otherwise.

Ortega claims that his past as a Marxist revolutionary went the way of the cold war. He claims that his primary political interest in today’s Nicaragua is the care of the country’s poor. Uh huh. And I claim that there’s a certain amount of truth to the old “a tiger can’t change his stripes” thing. And populist president Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is lending his “moral” support to the Ortega campaign, as well. On October 17, the Associated Press reported that:

The Venezuelan leader has openly backed Ortega, calling him a “brother” and sending low-cost fuel to ease Nicaragua’s constant power outages. Ortega personally attended the arrival of the first diesel shipment and considers Chavez his friend, while denying Chavez is meddling in the Nicaraguan election. Ortega’s closest rival, the Harvard-educated banker Eduardo Montealegre, warns that Ortega will spread Chavez’s populist politics across the region and “put an end to the advances that democracy and foreign investment have achieved.

All this reminds me of Mortimer Zuckerman’s warning of “a danger to democracy [that] is brewing right here in our backyard”.

The United States has already hinted that it may withdraw economic aid for Nicaragua should Ortega be elected. Bring out the parkas, boys and girls, the cold war might just be back.

Technorati Tags: Fidel Castro, Cuba, Hugo Chavez, Venezuela, Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua, Marxist, FSLN, Somosa, Latin American, elections, contras, Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, Nicaraguan constitution, right-wing, Arnoldo Aleman, Sandinista, Enrique Bolanos, National Assembly, revolutionary, low-cost fuel, Eduardo Montealegre